Fiscal Targets and Economic Growth
Thomas J. Courchene and Thomas A. Wilson (eds.), 1998 (Paper ISBN: 0-88911-778-0 $24.95) (Cloth ISBN: 0-88911-776-4 $55.00)

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	Contents
	Introduction

CONTENTS

Preface		iii
Introduction	. . .	1
Session I: Demography, Labour Markets and Productivity
Frank T. Denton and Byron G. Spencer Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-Term Growth	. . .	21
W. Craig Riddell Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-Term Growth: Comments	. . .	58
Richard Harris Long-Term Productivity Issues	. . .	67
Dan Trefler Long-Term Productivity Issues: Comments	. . .	91
Session II: Long-Term Economic Forecasts
Paul Darby The Conference Board of Canada Methodology for Calculating Potential Output	. . .	97
Peter Dungan Remarks	. . .	108
Robert B. Fairholm Canada’s Long-Term Economic Projection	. . .	121
Andrew Goldstein A Comparison of Canadian Long-Term Economic Projections	. . .	142
Session III: Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle
R.D. Kneebone and K.J. McKenzie Stabilizing Features of Fiscal Policy in Canada	. . .	191
Pierre Fortin Automatic Stabilization in Canada: A Discussion	. . .	236
Paul Boothe and Brad Reid Fiscal Prudence and Federal Budgeting in the Medium Term	. . .	240
Rick Egelton Fiscal Prudence and Federal Budgeting in the Medium Term: Comments	. . .	266
Session IV: Debt-GDP Dynamics and Optimal Policies: How Quickly Should the Debt-GDP Ratio be Reduced? What Should be the Ultimate Target?
William Scarth and Harriet Jackson The Target Debt-to-GDP Ratio: How Big Should It Be? and How Quickly Should We Approach It?	. . .	271
Gregor Smith Discussion of Debt-GDP Dynamics	. . .	296
Session V: Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth: How Best to Invest the Fiscal Dividend?
John Whalley Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth	. . .	303
William B.P. Robson Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth: Comments	. . .	318
Session VI: International Perspective
Jürgen von Hagen European Experience with Fiscal Initiatives: Fiscal Institutions, Maastricht Guidelines and EMU	. . .	331
Session VII: Panel Discussion: Medium-Term Fiscal Plans
Leo de Bever Surpluses, Surpluses: Is There a Dividend to Divide?	. . .	351
John McCallum From Consensus on Deficits to Consensus on Debt	. . .	360
Session VIII: Rapporteur’s Comments
John F. Helliwell Conference Summary and Implications for Fiscal Policy	. . .	371

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INTRODUCTION

When will the fiscal dividend appear and what is its likely magnitude? Should deficit targets be replaced by debt targets or debt/GDP targets? If so, how quickly should these targets be achieved? Or should the fiscal dividend focus on tax cuts and increases in program expenditures? Should we shift away from an annual deficit target to budget balance over the cycle in order to allow automatic stabilizers to play their important buffeting role? In this event, what level of contingency reserve is necessary to ensure that we can meet cyclical budget balance? How well are the Europeans faring in terms of these questions? These are representative of the range of issues addressed in Fiscal Targets and Economic Growth. The volume provides the necessary backdrop for the Liberals’ first budget of their new mandate.

The participants include Frank Denton, Byron Spencer and Craig Riddell on labour force trends; Richard Harris and Dan Trefler on productivity; views from the Conference Board, DRI/McGraw Hill, Informetrica and the Institute for Policy Analysis on long term projections; Ron Kneebone, Ken McKenzie and Pierre Fortin on automatic stabilizers; Paul Boothe, Brad Reid, and Richard Egelton on fiscal prudence; William Scarth, Harriet Jackson and Gregor Smith on optimal debt ratios; John Whalley and William Robson on how best to invest the fiscal dividend; and Leo deBever, Clement Gignac and John McCallum on where we should go from here. International perspectives are provided by Robert Westcott of the IMF and Juergen von Hagen of Bonn University. John Helliwell admirably integrates and lends perspectives to the collection of papers.

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